Economic study of the rice sector
Estimates for the rice sector: Cepea/Esalq/USP Retrospective 2023
In the first half, quotations have even given way, as is seasonally observed, given that this is the period of greatest supply. However, as stocks were reduced, rice values began to show significant increases in the second half. In the last quarter of the year, the positive variations were even more intense, with prices being driven by concern related to the new crop, which registered problems in the field, due to the unfavorable climate. Thus, while in the first semester (between December 29, 2022 and June 30, 2023), the CEPEA/IRGA-RS Indicator (58% of whole grains, with cash payment) fell 10.7%, in the second half of the year (from June 30 to December 28, 2023), there was a significant advance of 54.6%. On December 19, the CEPEA/IRGA-RS indicator reached a nominal record of R$ 130.79 per 50 kg bag, with the increase in the year being 42.4%. In real terms, the average of December/23, of R$ 127.36, was the highest since October/20, when it was R$ 128.45 - the monthly record of the Cepea series, of R$ 131.92, was verified in September/20 (the values were deflated by the IGP-DI).
Brazilian imports of rice based on husk totaled 1.42 million tons in 2023, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex). On the export side, in the same period, shipments of rice on husk basis totaled 1.75 million tons. HARVEST 2022/23 - The production of the 2022/23 season was estimated by Conab at 10 million tons, 7% lower than the previous one.
Adding production to the initial stocks (of January/23), of 2.31 million tons, and imports, of 1.4 million tons (between January and December/23), the internal availability would be at 13.74 million tons. Of this total, the forecast is that 10.25 million tons were consumed internally, and 1.8 million tons, exported. Thus, the final stock, in December/23, is estimated at 1.7 million tons. USDA data show that the global production of rice benefited in the 2022/23 harvest was projected at 512.9 million tons, stable compared to the previous one. Consumption increased by only 1.1%, totaling 521 million tons of rice.